Tiffany Soerianto

I was lucky I had a pretty amazing boss for my first job. 

TCO Analysis of 10k Cluster 

This is my bare-metal chassis analysis for a 10,000-GPU H100 cluster. It’s a helpful way to understand the every parts of a server. The goal was to compare costs when buying directly from ODMs versus OEMs, using typical markups of about 1% and 30% respectively. With the fast-changing AI market, these numbers may continue to shift.

The cost estimates are based on data from pytorchatoms. I prorated the figures to a 10,000-GPU setup and performed several cross-checks to ensure internal consistency. 

The server-component data is from 2024, while the operational assumptions reflect conditions as of July 2025. I used a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.1%. 

A range of 7%–10% seems reasonable, given a current U.S. risk-free rate of approximately 4.3%. The 90% utilization rate is sourced from SemiAnalysis, though it may be somewhat optimistic.

Most of the underlying figures come from PytorchAtoms and SemiAnalysis. The electricity cost assumption of $0.087 per kWh is based on North Dakota rates.

At 17, I cultivated a reading habit on the advice of a cherished mentor. Like many other Gen Zs, I grew up immersed in YouTube binges and movies. Embracing reading was one of the best decisions of my life, bringing me wisdom, clarity, and joy that many others overlook. I discovered a deep affinity for the intellectual world, gravitating toward books with original ideas that remain relevant for decades. Below are my top five books of all time, followed by my complete reading list.

My favourite books and why: 

1. Impro by Keith Johnstone 

Most people overthink decisions, paralysed by what’s “correct.” Keith Johnstone’s Impro says: stop thinking, start acting. Written in 1979, this book is engaging and timeless. The chapter on status was interesting. It breaks down behaviours mechanistically, and it's a great framework that everyone can learn from. I first discovered it after reading it here.

2. The Sovereign Individual 

Originally published in 1997, there is a shocking number of predictions made by the author that became true 28 years later. Big ideas sound crazy until they’re obvious. This book challenges me to think harder about the future by understanding the past. It encourages strategic thinking by understanding megapolitics - large-scale forces shaping civilisations. 

3. Zero to One by Peter Thiel 

Copying others gets you to “one”; building what doesn’t exist takes you from zero. An absolute timeless book that challenges you to be bold and follow your original ideas. The book resonates with J.C.R. Licklider’s 1960s vision of a world where computers eliminate geographical barriers to creativity and collaboration. Fast forward 50 years, and societal pressures for conformity still hinder the potential of the individual. This book inspires me to be authentic and question the status quo. There are no rules, only consequences. 

4. The hard things about hard things by Ben Horowitz 
Contrary to expectations, the most difficult things at work are not the tasks, but navigating human conflicts and the emotional toll that comes with a high-pressure environment. School doesn't teach you that, but this book will. Learn to separate what’s best for the mission from what feels good. Its raw honesty makes it valuable for leaders and entrepreneurs. 

5. Principles by Ray Dalio
I stumbled into this book by pure chance. I was a kid from Indonesia, freshly arrived to Hong Kong, who knew nothing about the financial markets. This book inspired me to pursue financial markets, and reap the rewards of the intellectual thrill. It also piqued my interest in meditation, and my subsequent experience in Vipassana was one of my fondest memories. The book is a reminder to carve your own principles, follow one's integrity and learn from mistakes. 

My interest in GPUs began in 2023 when Nvidia unveiled plans for the Blackwell chip. I was struck by reports that each new chip  was slashing inference costs by up to 30x. I recalled a key insight from Andy Grove’s Only the Paranoid Survive, where he described the exponential decline of Intel’s memory business due to disruptive technological shifts.

I was curious about how this leap in computing power is going to affect my business. I was shocked to learn that one of the largest players in electronic FX trading (a hedge fund called XTX) had the biggest private cloud usage of A100s in the world (according to this report in 2023). Back then, no one I knew was using it in trading. I dug further and discovered other secretive hedgefunds – the likes of TGS investments, constructing massive 500,000 sqft data centers.

But why build when you can rent?

Neoclouds are GPU-based infrastructure tailored for AI and ML. Similar to the production of traditional cars vs electric cars (Toyota vs Tesla), traditional hyperscalers (AWS) and neoclouds are built differently from the bottom up. Traditional hyperscalers, however, has a big edge in financing. 

Interestingly, the business is more fragmented than I initially thought, with different companies pursuing different strategies. Unlike direct competitors in the software side (Windsurf vs Cursor), different clients of the infrastructure business are willing to accept certain trade-offs - whether it's premium pricing in exchange for a single tenant offering, or preference on the software stack.

One of my favourite resources to learn more about this industry is semianalysis.com

According to Dylan & team, there are nine major factors differentiating the best cloud providers, ranging from:

It's more complicated than you think

Building a world-class Neo Cloud is more complicated than you think. It’s not a simple act of combining GPU, networking them and supplying power. It’s an extremely complicated system with hundreds and thousands of potential failures for a single workload, and the pioneers have placed automated systems and active burn-ins to provide better customer service. The software stack is increasingly integral to the success of cloud architecture. The Neocloud business is rapidly expanding, with the total addressable market projected to increase from $33 billion in 2023 to $260 billion by 2030.*The neocloud business is rapidly growing, with total addressable market is set to grow from 33bn (2023) to 260bn (2030)*. 

Booms and Busts

Technological revolutions often spark economic booms, but history shows that they can also lead to devastating busts when optimism outpaces fundamentals. The mobile and cloud computing waves of the 2000s and 2010s drove sustained growth without major collapses, thanks to measured scaling and broad market adoption. In contrast, the dot-com and telecom crash of 2000-2002 serves as a stark warning for industries reliant on heavy financing and infrastructure.

There are two historical busts that I think we can identify critical lessons from. First is overcapacity in servers and fiber-optics in the 1990s. Companies like Global Crossing and WorldCom overbuilt fiber optic networks, anticipating demand that never fully materialised. By 2001, only 5% of the laid fibers was operational, leading to plummeting prices.

Second is the collapse of Japanese semiconductor manufacturers after the introduction of the 1985 Plaza Accord. This agreement, aimed at correcting trade balances, strengthened the Japanese yen, making exports costlier. By the 1990s, Japan’s global share of semiconductors dropped from over 50% to 20%.

The AI boom holds a transformative potential, but history warns against unchecked optimism. Leading neo cloud providers l are proactively mitigating risks through strategic measures: “take or pay” contracts ensure revenue stability, while partnerships with deep-pocketed clients and well-funded AI startups reduce exposure to customer defaults. By combining long-term optimism and short-term paranoia, leading neo clouds can position themselves to avoid the pitfalls of the past tech wave.

* Source: Nebius Group

While I enjoy reading across many subjects, science has always held a special place in my heart. One day, I stumbled into Bruno. Bruno de Finetti was an Italian mathematician who famously stated that "probability does not exist" in an objective sense; instead, probability exists only as a mental construct representing how likely a person thinks an event will happen based on their information and beliefs. 

I think it's a great reminder of life - no matter how data-driven we are, our probability judgment is filtered through our subjective beliefs. 

Some of my interests:

• Economic Growth. 
• Books and ideas. Big fan of press.stripe.com
• Business Philosophy 
  
• Math Puzzles that make you think

X: tiff_soerianto
Email: soerianto.tiffany@gmail.com